Matthieu Chazal

Abstract

The electrification of transport entails a structural reallocation of economic value, as part of the USD 2 trillion gasoline market shifts toward electricity-based mobility. Unlike gasoline, electricity is a time-variable, network-constrained commodity requiring continuous real-time balancing. With increasing renewable penetration, flexibility becomes central to system stability. Electric vehicles (EVs), particularly through bidirectional charging (V2G), may provide such flexibility at lower capital cost than stationary storage, potentially expanding the value generated by mobility beyond traditional fuel margins. However, this potential is institutionally contingent. EVs can provide multiple services—arbitrage, peak shaving, frequency regulation, reserves, imbalance correction—whose value varies across jurisdictions depending on market design, renewable penetration, grid architecture, and coordination between Transmission and Distribution System Operators. Existing valuation frameworks largely rely on centralized, high-voltage assets and insufficiently account for the distributed nature of EVs, their dependence on user behavior, and the regulatory constraints governing market participation. From the perspective of automakers, the relevant issue is not theoretical market size but strategic feasibility. Enabling energy services entails battery degradation risks, warranty exposure, certification burdens, and investment in digital control systems. The central research question is therefore: which EV energy services are economically meaningful and institutionally feasible for manufacturers? This project integrates institutional analysis, comparative electricity market study, and a service-specific evaluation framework adapted to distributed, low-voltage assets. It examines how regulatory design, aggregation rules, and TSO–DSO coordination shape opportunity structures, and how these translate into manufacturer-level incentives.