University / Organisation : Sapienza University of Rome

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Title : Looking Within a Large City: The Effect of Sub-Municipal Amalgamations in Rome on Electoral Outcomes.

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Abstract : This study examines the political consequences of sub-municipal amalgamations in large cities by analyzing the 2013 reform in Rome, which reduced the number of decentralized districts (Municipi) from 19 to 15. Using fine-grained electoral precinct data from the SEI dataset, combined with census information, we construct a panel covering elections from 1999 to 2024. We employ a non-parametric generalized difference-in-differences estimator to compare sub-municipal turnout between precincts located in amalgamated and non-amalgamated Municipi. Our preliminary results indicate that the merging of sub-municipal units had no significant effect on sub-municipal voter turnout. However, we expect to find impacts on other electoral outcomes, such as support for the incumbent mayor, shifts in party vote shares, and changes in territorial representation. By focusing on intra-urban amalgamations and leveraging a uniquely detailed dataset in terms of both spatial resolution and temporal coverage, this study addresses a gap in the literature on local governance reforms and electoral behavior within large metropolitan contexts.