(Tuesday, 21st May 2024)
Title : The Origins of Commodity Price Fluctuations
The lecture presents novel indexes of commodity-price developments by simulating news reading. The proposed computer-based, narrative approach is flexible and spans all commodity markets, including energy, metals, agricultural and livestock. Empirical evidence indicates that the indexes successfully distinguish between supply and demand. The richness of news content allows to further identify key drivers that shape commodity markets, including business cycle effects, geopolitical risk, natural disasters, and climate change. Additional results indicate that the nature of commodity price movements matters for macroeconomic outcomes, firms’ decisions, and asset prices.