University / Organisation : University College London

Paper or project ? paper

Title : Migration and E-commerce Trade

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Abstract : Over the past four decades, China's rapid development has led to a massive internal migration, primarily from rural to urban areas. This movement, fueled by economic growth and urbanization, has reshaped demographic patterns, exemplified by the Chinese New Year's travel rush, one of the world's largest annual human migrations. Despite the profound effects of these shifts, their economic implications, especially concerning e-commerce within China's booming digital economy, remain underexplored. This study assesses the economic impacts of migration on e-commerce, which accounts for about a quarter of China’s total consumption. Using trade data from Alibaba's platform across 2011-2021, covering 14.39 million transactions, and migration data from Baidu Maps, tracking daily city-to-city migration flows from 2019-2021, this research offers comprehensive insights into how migration influences digital trade. A spatial regression discontinuity design approach helped control for variables that could skew results, revealing significant findings: migration positively affects e-commerce, with outflows and inflows respectively increasing trade by 0.8% and 0.9% in the analyzed cities. The study further highlights varied impacts across different product categories, with notable increases in sectors like Transportation and Communication, Household Goods, and Food. Each sector experienced growth ranging from 1.0% to 1.9% due to migration. These findings not only underscore the positive correlation between migration and e-commerce but also offer insights for other developing countries experiencing similar demographic shifts. The research suggests that leveraging migration for economic development through digital commerce can inform strategic public policies and business strategies.